Skill, Variance & Edge

Separate skill, variance, and edge — and explain why knowing sports rarely beats the line and vig.

Domain

Overview

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Self-paced study flow — not the projector or class assignment view. Read the pages, then complete the check when you are ready.

5 pages6 question check

Objective: Separate three ideas people mash together — skill, variance, and edge — and explain why "I know sports" rarely beats the vig.

For legal-age bettors and anyone evaluating betting talk around them. Five pages. Cantinotti evidence, DFS/rake reality, and the "I'm good at this" trap.

Capstone check: 6 questions, pass 5/6.

Outcomes

What you'll learn

Define skill, variance, and edge as three distinct ideas.
Explain Cantinotti findings: experts pick winners but still lose to vig.
Recognize DFS/rake structure and the 90–95% bettor loss rate.
Diagnose the 'I'm good at this' trap as sample-size and recall bias.

Shortcut

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