Skill, Variance & Edge: Check

Separate skill, variance, and edge — and explain why knowing sports rarely beats the line and vig.

Assessment

LessonReasoning6 questions

Check

Get 5 of 6 correct to mark the lesson mastered.

1
You won your last three bets. Most likely explanation:
Choices for question 1You found a systemShort-run variance — few wins look like skillHouse edge stopped applyingYou know sports better than the book
2
Approximate break-even win rate on -110 singles:
Choices for question 250%52.4%55%60%
3
When you bet, you mainly compete against:
Choices for question 3The other teamOther fansThe line — market price plus vigPure luck only
4
Median recreational DFS player is unprofitable because:
Choices for question 4DFS is illegalOperator rake (~10–15%) plus pro dominanceNo data allowedRules change daily
5
Why one season's record is unreliable skill evidence? Select all.
Choices for question 5Variance over 50–100 bets is large vs skill effectsSeparating 51% from 50% needs hundreds/thousands of betsSelective recall biases memoryTen wins in a row proves skill
6
Most useful question for a self-described sharp:
Choices for question 6Who do you bet on?What evidence would convince you you lack long-run edge?What's your parlay strategy?Are you up this month?