My learning · Reasoning
Parlays & Expected Value
Odds, vig, EV, and parlay compounding — plus the brain moves that override the math and a 30-second check for any random-outcome purchase.
Overview
Self-paced study flow — not the projector or class assignment view. Read the pages, then complete the check when you are ready.
Objective: Build a 30-second mental check you can run on any random-outcome purchase — parlays, loot boxes, lotteries, BNPL, warranties.
You are an of-age decision-maker. Sports betting exposes the math most clearly, but the skill transfers everywhere.
Three layers across eleven pages (~40 minutes):
- The math — odds, implied probability, vig, EV, why parlays compound the edge
- The brain — loss aversion, sunk cost, near-miss, certainty effect
- The framework — cost, chance, repeat-test
Inline checks on key pages. Capstone: 6 questions, pass 5/6.
Outcomes
- Read American odds and translate to implied probability.
- Calculate expected value of a single bet and explain why parlays compound the operator's edge.
- Name loss aversion, sunk cost, near-miss, and certainty effect as pause signals.
- Apply the cost/chance/repeat-test framework to non-betting consumer decisions.
Shortcut
Skip the pages and try the 6-question check now. You can come back to study any time.
Test out — try the checkSee the classroom version learners will use in class.
Preview student study flowReady to teach?
Presentation mode, printable aides, and student preview live on the class teach view — open from Classes when you are ready to deliver.