Parlays & Expected Value: Check

Odds, vig, EV, and parlay compounding — plus the brain moves that override the math and a 30-second check for any random-outcome purchase.

Assessment

LessonReasoning6 questions

Check

Get 5 of 6 correct to mark the lesson mastered.

1
A bet is offered at -200. Implied probability is approximately:
Choices for question 133.3%50%66.7%75%
2
A $10 bet on a -150 favorite wins $6.67. True win probability is 57%. EV is:
Choices for question 2+$0.50−$0.50+$6.67−$10.00
3
A coin flip posted at -110 / -110. The vig is best described as:
Choices for question 3A separate checkout feeThe ~4.8 points above 100% when both sides are summed — guaranteeing operator marginA bonus the operator pays youRandom settlement variance
4
A streamer brags about a 3-game parlay win streak. Best read?
Choices for question 4They cracked parlay mathNothing definitive — 3 wins fits normal variance on negative-EV betsThe operator pays themParlays must be neutral EV
5
Strongest warning sign of loss-chasing?
Choices for question 5"I'm walking away — lost more than I planned.""Just betting for fun this weekend.""I'm down $200 but ONE more bet will get me even.""I set a $50 cap before I started."
6
The 30-second check (cost, chance, repeat-test) applies to which of these?
Choices for question 6A $20 mystery loot boxExtended warranty on a $300 laptopA buy-now-pay-later offer at checkoutChoosing next semester's courses