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Ms. CarterEast Wake HS · 3 classes · 2 cohorts

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Learn · Reasoning Unit

Skill, Variance, and Why Sharp Bettors Still Lose: Check

Define skill, variance, and edge as three separate concepts; show why expert bettors who pick winners above chance still lose money on average.

Reasoning Unit·Lesson 3 of 5

x

0 of 5 mastered

Assessment

LessonReasoning6 questions

Check

Get 5 of 6 correct to mark the lesson mastered.

1
Match each statement to the term it best illustrates.
An expert hockey bettor picks 53 percent of winners across hundreds of NHL games
A break-even bettor wins 7 out of 10 bets in a single weekend
A bettor's expected long-run return per dollar wagered after the operator margin
2
Approximately what win rate does a bettor need on -110 single bets to break even (after accounting for the vig)?
Choices for question 250.0 percent52.4 percent55.0 percent60.0 percent
3
DFS rewards skill more than a -110 sportsbook bet does. Why is the median recreational DFS player still unprofitable?
Choices for question 3Because DFS is illegalBecause the operator takes a rake (typically 10-15 percent of prize pools) and the top 1-2 percent of professional players capture most of the restBecause DFS players cannot use any data or researchBecause the operator changes the rules between contests
4
Which of these correctly describe why a single season's results are unreliable as evidence of skill? Select all that apply.
Choices for question 4Variance over 50-100 bets is large compared to plausible underlying skill effectsDistinguishing a 51 percent picker from a 50 percent picker requires hundreds or thousands of betsSelective recall biases the bettor's memory toward apparent profitabilityOnce a bettor wins 10 bets in a row, their underlying skill has been proven
5
Lopez-Gonzalez and colleagues (2017) studied UK sports betting advertising. They found the marketing explicitly targets which cognitive distortion?
Choices for question 5The gambler's fallacyThe illusion of control - the belief that bettors who choose more, calculate more, and engage more deeply will outperformLoss aversionAnchoring on suggested deposits
6
What is the most useful question to ask a self-described “sharp” bettor, in the spirit of this lesson?
Choices for question 6Have you been winning latelyWhat evidence would convince you that you do not actually have a long-run edgeWhat system do you useWho do you bet on

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