Learn · Reasoning Unit
Parlays, Probability, and Expected Value: Check
Three-layer professional learning: the math (implied probability, EV, vig, parlays), the brain moves that compete with the math in real time during simulation (loss aversion, sunk cost, near-miss, certainty), and the transferable consumer-decision skill students leave with.
0 of 5 mastered
Assessment
Get 6 of 8 correct to mark the lesson mastered.
- 1
A bet is offered at -200. What implied probability is the operator charging?
- 2
A $10 bet on a -150 favorite would win $6.67. If the true win probability is 57 percent, what is the expected value?
- 3
A coin flip is posted at -110 / -110. The vig is best described as:
- 4
Match each parlay structure to its expected-value direction (assume each leg is a -110 favorite with true probability around 50 percent).
- 5
Which statements about the law of large numbers are accurate? Select all that apply.
- 6
Williams and Connolly (2006) showed that teaching gambling math alone did not reliably change gambling behavior. What does this imply for the curriculum?
- 7
Match each student behavior to the brain move it best illustrates, for use as a real-time facilitation cue during Game Day.
- 8
The 3-question check (real-dollar cost, actual chance/payoff, repeat-test) is meant to transfer beyond sportsbook bets. On which of these does it directly apply?